Tag Archives: War

A State of War

Assad admitted on Tuesday June 26th that Syria is in a state of war, and asked his government to spare no effort to achieve victory. The fighting has been going on for about 16 months now, and yesterday there were reports that fighting has reached the Syrian capital Damascus. The rebels were reported as blocking the “old road” from Beirut to Damascus.

This is a major change for Bashar al-Assad, because up until now he’s downplayed the insurrection in his country. I believe the fighting in the capital has woken him to the realization that NATO will not rest until he is removed from power. The goal of NATO is to dominate all of the middle east and keep Russia and China out. Once Syria is gone only Iran will stand in NATO’s way.

I’m sure Russia is fully aware of this, and it makes sense now why Vlad Putin stopped off in Israel to speak to Netanyahu. Turkey on the other hand won’t attack Syria without NATO help, and they are already backing down from their strong rhetoric after their Jet was shot down. They talk tough, but they don’t act tough. One only has to think back to when Turkish citizens were killed by the IDF enroute to Gaza. Turkey basically did the politically equivalent of yelling at them, and said bad, bad, bad Israel!

I don’t see NATO putting boots on the ground in Syria, until they wait a few more months to see how their “rebels” do. The stakes have been raised by Russia. If Russia back’s off, then Syria’s days are quickly reduced. I’m ceasing to write on the subject of Syria until something of serious significance changes for the better or the worse.

I hope for the better, but I’m afraid it’s obvious the direction this has taken.

News Monkey Info

Turkish Jet down

There are unconfirmed reports out of the Middle East that Syria shot down a Turkish jet that violated it’s airspace. I’ve checked a few websites, and all of them are reporting basically the same “facts”.

Apparently two Turkish Jets were either heading into Syrian airspace or were already violating the airspace, and the Syrian’s were able to shoot one down while the other escaped. It was first reported the pilots were rescued, but now the story has changed and the rescue hasn’t been confirmed. I believe you can take the following two points from the incident.

The Syrian air defense works. NATO won’t experience a cakewalk if they wish to implement a no-fly zone.
Turkey is part of the NATO alliance, and an attack on one is considered to be an attack on all. The shoot down of the Turkish jet can be used as an excuse by NATO to invade Syria. The Turkish intrusion into Syrian airspace, could have also been a test to gage Syria’s response.
Prime Minister Erdogan has been very soft in his actions and hard in his words. Turkey won’t unilaterally respond to Syria.

A history lesson of sorts, and the Bear makes a move.

I’ve been promising a history lesson, and today I’m getting it done. I want to cover Putin’s counter to NATO’s voracious desire for war in Syria, and I’ll also explain how the strategy applied in Syria is well worn. It’s a strategy which has been deployed once too often by the USA in the 20th and 21st century.

In the past fews months we’ve seen the Syrian crisis continue to escalate. It has now escalated to the climax where NATO has just enough excuse to ask for a “no fly zone”. I’m of the personal belief that many of these atrocities can be blamed on the foreign “freedom fighters”, or the “Free Syrian Army” as they are now euphemistically called by CNN. I’m sure the Syrian military is guilty of killing their own people, but these recent atrocities seem out of place, and in this writer’s opinion, appear to be the work of foreign Sunni extremists.

Now because NATO has their justification almost fully in place, Putin has made an impressive chess move by supplying Syria with attack helicopters. Vlad has demonstrated that Russia will attempt to block further unimpeded expansion and control by NATO. The addition of attack helicopters will decisively change the tide of battle if used correctly. Thus far the rebels don’t show signs of being equipped with stingers or the Russian equivalent IGLA. The lack of these air defense weapons will give control of the skies, and close combat support to the Syrian army.

There are rumors that Putin has also ordered the activation of an infantry division, paratroop division, and Spetsnaz brigade. The Russian’s are looking out for their strategic naval port in Tartus, which allows them to maintain a military presence in the Mediterranean. Putin’s actions show he is determined to respond to a NATO attack. How he responds is the wildcard.

I would like to cover some history that ties in with the war in Libya, and the preparation for war in Syria. The United States government has an awfully bad record of supporting and supplying dictators, or funding and supplying rebels to eliminate or counter a common foe. They tend to operate with an enemy of my enemy is my friend mindset.

Let’s take a stroll down memory lane, military style. On Christmas Eve 1979, the Soviet 40th army rolled into Afghanistan on order from then President Leonid Brezhnev. Three days later the Soviets occupied Bagram Airbase and Kabul, and executed then Afghan President Hafizullah Amin on accusation he was working for the CIA. The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan was a long standing ally of the Soviet Union. The Russian’s weren’t about to lose control of Afghanistan to Western powers, so they effectively started their own Vietnam, which ended with Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan on February 15, 1989. The war saw the loss of roughly 15,000 Russian soldiers, and close to 90,000 Mujahideen. The people of Afghanistan suffered the most, with a rough estimate of 2 million dead. The Soviet Union collapsed on December 26, 1991.

One of the facets of US strategy for defeating the Soviets, was to supply the Mujahideen with the stinger missile. The stinger was a major game changer for the Mujahideen. The weapon allowed them to destroy Soviet aircraft in great numbers, and increase the pucker factor of those pilots that survived. The ground war was one of attrition, and one the Mujahideen could win because the Soviets were ill prepared to fight an asymmetrical war. The Soviet war machine at that time was designed for mass combined arms assault. A great tactic if this was WWII, and the opponent was Nazi Germany.

Another key ingredient to the Soviet defeat was the son of billionaire construction magnate Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden. The son we know as Osama bin Laden, and the CIA knew him by his code name “Tim Osman”. After Osama graduated from college in 1979 he went to Pakistan to join Abdullah Yusuf Azzam in his fight against the Soviets, and helped support the Mujahideen with construction equipment and cold hard cash.

We can see how the US secretly allied with the Mujahideen when they could be used as a tool against the Soviets. After the Soviet defeat, Afghanistan fell into a civil war which eventually saw the Taliban victorious. Afghanistan was a very western nation in appearance when they were the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. You would be surprised if you sought out photographs, and saw exaclty how western they were. The country is drastically different today, as we well know. I’m not a supporter of Communism or the Soviet Empire, but you can clearly see how supporting the Mujahideen back fired for the United States.

It never backfires for the military industrial complex, because enemies are good for business.

The same tactic in Afghanistan was applied in Iraq with Saddam Hussein, and most recently was applied in Libya. With Libya we supported the rebels ouster of Muammar Gaddafi, through NATO’s “no fly zone”, and a persistent media campaign. Many of these rebels were affiliated with al-Qaeda, and have no love for America. We’re seeing the same tactic applied in Syria. The only difference this time is Vlad Putin.

There is a confrontation brewing in the Middle East.

Many believe we are heading for a second cold war, but I believe the signs are point to a future hot war between Russia and NATO.

News Monkey Info

Provoking The Bear

Nato Russia FlagOn May 21st NATO’s secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said NATO’s missile defense shield was operational in an interim capacity. I had to figure out what he meant by “interim” and apparently it’s defined as missile interceptors loaded on a U.S. ship in the Mediterranean, and a radar system based in Turkey.

This lone U.S. missile interceptor ship won’t be alone for long, as NATO anticipates to have a total of four in the Mediterranean. The strategy of employing a floating missile defense system is smart, because it makes them a harder target for potential enemies, especially if they are camouflaged to appear as a commercial ship. The NATO missile defense system doesn’t stop here, the ultimate stated goal is protection of NATO territories in the Euro/Atlantic location by 2022.

The missile defense system has angered the Bear (aka The Russian Federation), because the system upsets the balance of MAD. MAD for those of you that didn’t grow up in the 80′s stands for Mutually Assured Destruction. This concept is supposedly what kept the nukes sleeping in their silos during the cold war, because it made waging global thermonuclear war a game that can’t be won except for cockroaches or course. The computer program Joshua quickly learns this in the movie War-games when he says “the only winning move is not to play”.

This brings us to Russia’s main concern of an operational NATO missile defense system. Russia has said the system itself makes the prospect of a nuclear war shift from mutual destruction to be perceived as war that could be won. This is because in their view, the system will allow NATO (aka the USA) first strike capability. Which means in layman’s terms, we can take out your missiles when they launch, allowing Russia to be vulnerable, and leaving Europe and the United States with a lot less destruction. In a real exchange, nukes would get through no matter what, but the devastation Russia could receive would cease their existence as a political entity.

NATO has told Russia the missile defense system is being put in place for rogue nations, specifically in their view Iran and North Korea. Now since North Korea and Iran haven’t shown the capability to hit Europe or the USA for that matter with an ICBM, one can easily see how this makes Russia nervous. Combine the news with the fact that NATO is much larger than it was during the cold war (a promise NATO broke to Russia), and that the United States and NATO are right in Russia’s backyard in the former Soviet republics.

It may be better in the long run to discontinue the missile defense system, or assure Russia in some way the missile defense system is not aimed at them. I can’t see how that would be possible in the long run, because Russia will remain suspicious of NATO, just as NATO would be suspicious of Russia if they were working on a similar missile defense system. I believe the only solution is for Russia to immediately counter NATO’s move by building their own missile defense system, or complete nuclear disarmament.

Russia has stated they would consider using a first strike on the interceptor systems to prevent them from weakening their nuclear deterrent. In reality this proposed ABM system will lead to a new arms race. The technology being proposed in the final stage to complete the ABM system is not even in operational existence. More than likely Russia will target the land based interceptor systems once they are in place in Poland and the Czech Republic, and figure out ways to improve their nuclear deterrent to by pass the system.

NATO’s current path will ruin relations, and create a possible flash point for future armed conflict between NATO and Russia.

The News Monkey Logo